• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 3.0%,3.0% previous
• EU May M3 Money Supply (YoY) 8.9% , 8.6% forecast, 8.3% previous
• EU May Loans to Non Financial Corporations 7.3%,6.6% previous
• Italian Public Deficit (Q1) -10.8%,-2.4% previous
• Italian June Business Confidence 79.8, 80.0 forecast, 71.2 previous
•Italian June Consumer Confidence 100.6, 97.5 forecast, 94.3 previous
Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)
• 12:30 US May Personal Income (MoM) -6.0% forecast, 10.5% previous
• 12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 0.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 12:30 US May Personal Spending (MoM) 9.0% forecast,-13.6% previous
• 12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
• 12:30 US May PCE Price index (YoY) 0.5 previous
• 12:30 US May PCE price index (MoM) -0.5% previous
• 12:30 US May Real Personal Consumption (MoM) -13.2% previous
• 14:00 US June Michigan Consumer Sentiment 79.0 forecast, 72.3 previous
• 14:00 US June Michigan Current Conditions 87.8 forecast, 82.3 previous
• 14:00 US June Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.60%,2.70% previous
• 14:00 US June Michigan Consumer Expectations 73.1 forecast, 65.9 previous
• 14:00 US June Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast, 3.2% previous
• 16:00 US May Dallas Fed PCE 1.40% previous
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 266 previous
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as dollar held firm as caution over rapid rises in U.S. coronavirus cases cast doubt over the reopening of the economy. Also supporting the greenback was the broader rise in corporate demand towards the end of quarter. That helped the dollar stay firm despite the stubbornly upbeat risk appetite seen in global equity markets. The euro eased to $1.1212, losing steam after hitting a one-week peak of $1.1348 on Tuesday though the currency has maintained weekly gains of about 0.4%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1247 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1261 (14 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1166 (22nd June ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1126 (38.2% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Friday as sterling was weighed down by uncertainty over Brexit negotiations and worries over a second wave of COVID-19 infections as Britain eases its lockdown measures. Sterling is below its pre-referendum levels and little progress has been made in agreeing the country’s future trading relationship with the bloc. The pound was below the key $1.25 level versus the dollar at $1.2388 at 1215 GMT, down 0.2% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2471 (100 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2574 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2374 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2307 (50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Friday as caution over rapid rises in U.S. coronavirus cases cast doubt over the reopening of the economy, keeping the allure of its safe-haven value. Data on Thursday showed weak demand is forcing U.S. employers to lay off workers, keeping new applications for unemployment benefits extraordinarily high, even as businesses have reopened. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits stood at a seasonally adjusted 1.48 million for the week ended June 20, down 60,000 from a week earlier but still double their peak during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9491 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9538 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9449 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9409 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen Friday as concerns about a surge in coronavirus cases continued to weigh on hopes of a swift economic recovery. Coronavirus cases continued to rise across the United States by at least 39,818 on Thursday, the largest one-day increase of the pandemic. Analysts say market participants have assumed a second coronavirus wave and renewed lockdowns will have limited impact because, if curbs resume, it could heighten the possibility of more stimulus for economies. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.07 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.38 (200 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.76 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 105.95 00(Lower BB).
European stocks inched higher on Friday, propped up by positive company updates, although investors remained cautious about a resurgence in U.S. COVID-19 cases and its impact on the global economy.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.41 percent, Germany’s Dax was up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.35 percent.
Gold prices edged up on Friday en route to a third straight weekly gain, as a spike in coronavirus cases dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,762.41 per ounce by 0953 GMT, having soared to a peak since Oct. 2012 at $1,779.06 on Wednesday, putting it on course for a 1.1% gain for the week.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,774.70 per ounce
Oil prices inched up on Friday as the bullish impetus from signs of fuel demand recovery was kept in check by a rising number of new coronavirus cases in the United States and China and tentative expecations of U.S. output ticking up.
Brent crude futures were 40 cents higher at $41.45 at 1127 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 21 cents at $38.93.
Euro zone bond yields were broadly stable on Friday with the asset class expected to remain supported given uncertainty around coronavirus cases and geopolitical headlines into the weekend
Germany’s 10-year benchmark yield was unchanged at -0.47% , close to one-month lows hit on Thursday at -0.48%.
Italy’s 10-year yield was down 2 basis points at 1.35% after a sell-off that pushed it as much as 6 basis points higher a day earlier.