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Europe Roundup: Euro gains against dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data, European stocks hit a record high , Gold gains,Oil prices set for weekly gain despite India virus surge-May 7th,2021

Posted at 07 May 2021 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

•Swiss April Unemployment Rate n.s.a.  3.3%,3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous

•Swiss April Unemployment Rate s.a.  3.1%,3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous

•German Mar Imports (MoM)  6.5%, 0.7% forecast, 3.6% previous

•German Mar Exports (MoM)  1.2%,0.5% forecast, 0.9% previous

•German Mar Trade Balance  14.3B, 19.5B forecast, 19.1B previous

•German Mar Industrial Production (MoM)  2.5%, 2.3% forecast, -1.6% previous

•French Mar Imports  46.1B, 43.9B previous

•French Mar French Exports  40.0B, 38.7B previous         

•French Mar  Trade Balance  -6.1B, -5.3B previous           

•French Mar  Current Account  -2.90B, -2.60B previous 

•French Mar Industrial Production (MoM)  0.8%, 2.0% forecast, -4.7% previous

•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3%,-0.1% previous      

•Italian Mar Retail Sales (MoM)  -0.1%, 6.6% previous   

•UK Apr Construction PMI 61.6, 62.3 forecast, 61.7 previous       

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•12:00 Brazil March Retail Sales (MoM) -7.0% forecast, 0.6% previous    

•12:00 Brazil  Mar Retail Sales (YoY)  -1.7%,-3.8% previous            

•12:30 Canada April Full Employment Change  175.4K previous  

•12:30 Canada April Part Time Employment Change  127.8K previous      

•12:30 US Average Apr Hourly Earnings (MoM)  0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous

•12:30 US Apr Private Nonfarm Payrolls  893K forecast, 780K previous

•12:30 US Apr Nonfarm Payrolls  978K forecast, 916K previous

•12:30 US Apr Manufacturing Payrolls  55K forecast, 53K previous

•12:30 Canada Apr Unemployment Rate 7.8%forecast, 7.5% previous

•12:30 US Apr Government Payrolls  136.0K previous

•12:30 US Apr Participation Rate  65.2% previous

•12:30 US Apr Average Weekly Hours  34.9 forecast, 34.9 previous

•12:30 US Apr Unemployment Rate  5.8% forecast, 6.0% previous

•12:30 US Apr Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY)  -0.4% forecast,4.2% previous

•12:30 US Apr Participation Rate  61.5% previous

 •12:30 US Apr U6 Unemployment Rate  10.7% previous

•12:30 Canada Apr Employment Change   -175.0K forecast, 303.1K previous

•13:45 US Apr ISM-New York Index  804.5 previous

•14:00 Canada Apr Ivey PMI n.s.a  67.3 previous

•14:00 Canada Apr Ivey PMI  60.5 forecast, 72.9 previous

•14:00 US Mar Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM)  1.0% forecast,-0.8% previous

•14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 1.4% previous

•16:00 Russia April CPI (MoM)  0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous

•16:00 Russia April CPI (YoY)  5.5% forecast, 5.8% previous

•19:00 US March Consumer Credit  20.00B forecast, 27.58B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•13:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Fx Beat 

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened   on Friday as greenback came under pressure ahead of U.S. jobs data that is expected to underpin hopes for a strong post-pandemic economic recovery and to increase investor risk appetite. U.S. payrolls data is due at 1230 GMT and is expected to show that employers hired nearly a million workers in April, as they rushed to meet a surge in demand unleashed by the reopening of the economy and massive financial help from the government. At 11:30 GMT, the euro was up 0.1% on the day at $1.207 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2099 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2153(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2022(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1959(50%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling was a touch higher versus the dollar on Friday,  as traders watched for British election results. The British currency was unable to hold on to gains made on Thursday after the Bank of England slowed the pace of its trillion-dollar bond-purchasing programme. Traders were looking for evidence of any political risk after Thursday's elections. The pro-independence ruling Scottish National Party has vowed to call another referendum on breaking away from the United Kingdom if it wins a majority of seats. At 11:40 GMT, sterling was up just 0.08% at $1.3890. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3931(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4005(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3851 (50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.38172 (38.2%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed  against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders braced for a key U.S. jobs report later on Friday that could provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will ease back on monetary stimulus. The safe-haven dollar sank to its lowest level this week against a basket of major peers on Friday ahead of the jobs report, as firmness in global stock markets boosted risk appetite.The dollar index dipped to 90.837, and was on track for a 0.4% decline this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9101(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9174 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9050 (lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9015(23.6%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the yen on Friday as investors shrugged off the better-than-expected initial jobless claims data and waited for the non-farm payrolls report to provide market direction. U.S. payrolls data due at 1230 GMT will likely confirm the economy's solid path to recovery from the pandemic. Economists expect 978,000 new U.S. jobs for April, according to a poll. The dollar was a shade firmer on the yen at 109.36. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.28 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.75(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.92(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 108.55 (61.8%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks hit a record high on Friday as strong economic data from Germany and other major economies as well as upbeat earnings underpinned hopes of a swift economic recovery from the pandemic shock.

At (GMT 11:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.17 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Friday after breaching the key $1,800 level in the previous session, boosted by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, while investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.

Spot gold   was up 0.3% at $1,819 per ounce by 0959 GMT, after hitting its highest since Feb. 16 earlier in the session.  U.S. gold futures  rose 0.3% to $1,820.70.

Oil prices eased on Friday but were set for a weekly gain against the backdrop of optimism over a global economic recovery, though the COVID-19 crisis in India weighed.

Brent crude futures were down 19 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.90 a barrel by 1210 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.50.


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