Posted at 12 October 2021 / Categories Market Roundups
•UK Sep Claimant Count Change -51.1K,-58.6K previous
•UK Aug Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.0%,6.0% forecast, 6.8% previous
•UK Aug Average Earnings Index +Bonus 7.2%, 7.0% forecast, 8.3% previous
•UK Aug Unemployment Rate 4.5%,4.5% forecast,4.6% previous
•UK Aug Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 235K,243K forecast, 183K previous
•German Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment 22.3,24.0 forecast, 26.5 previous
•German Oct ZEW Current Conditions 21.6,28.5 forecast, 31.9 previous
•EU Oct ZEW Economic Sentiment 21.0,31.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 16.6% previous
• 14:00 US Aug JOLTs Job Openings 10.925M forecast, 10.934M previous
• 15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 0.055% previous
• 15:30 US 3-Year Note Auction 0.447% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•12:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
•12:30 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•15:15 FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investors continued to brace for higher inflation and a more hawkish response from the world's major central banks.Comments by European Central Bank officials failed to lift sentiment, while U.S. short-term borrowing costs rose, with the two-year yield hitting an 18-month high in Asian trade after Monday's Columbus Day holiday.The current bout of inflation in the eurozone is not a trigger for monetary policy action as growth in services prices and wages remains weak, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1556 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1574(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1540(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1500 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as UK jobs data came in largely in line with forecasts, keeping expectations for future rate rises from the Bank of England intact.The pound hit a two-week high against the greenback on Monday on hawkish comments from BoE governor Andrew Bailey, who stressed the need to prevent inflation, and fellow policymaker Michael Saunders, who said households must brace for “significantly earlier” interest rate rises. Sterling traded a touch lower on the day, down 0.06% against the dollar at $1.3586 and below Monday’s peak of $1.3674. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3616(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3682(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3567(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3530(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar initially gained against Swiss franc on Tuesday but gave up some ground as rising inflation fears and concerns over looming U.S. Federal Reserve tapering limited gains. Risk sentiment in wider financial markets was subdued, as inflation fears triggered by a global energy crunch threatened the economic outlook and drove some investors towards safe-haven assets. Investors focus will remain on minutes of the Fed’s Sept. 21-22 policy meeting and the consumer price index, both due on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9288 (11th Oct high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9316 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9258(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9230(Oct 4th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar held near three months high against yen on Tuesday as a relentless rise in Treasury yields widened the yield advantage in favour of the greenback. The yen’s recent weakness falling 4% in three weeks -- comes at a time when global bond yields have surged due to inflationary concerns. Ten-year U.S. yields topped 1.60% for the first time since late May. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies was at 94.30, not far from a one-year high of 94.504 touched at the end of September, as traders positioned themselves for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of its massive bond buying programme in November. Strong resistance can be seen at 113.44(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 114.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 112.89(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 112.42(50%fib).
European shares slipped on Tuesday as investors feared that soaring commodity prices would hamper a recovery in corporate profit, with fresh signs of troubles at property developer China Evergrande also hitting confidence.
At (GMT 10:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.54 percent.
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday drawing strength from rising inflation fears that has rattled financial markets, although concerns over looming U.S. Federal Reserve tapering limited gains.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,757.84 per ounce by 0904 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,757.70.
Oil rose towards $84 a barrel on Tuesday, within sight of a three-year high, supported by a rebound in global demand that is contributing to energy shortages in big economies such as China.
Brent crude was up 17 cents, or 0.2%, at $83.82 a barrel by 1000 GMT. On Monday it reached $84.60, the highest since October 2018. U.S. oil gained 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.60, having hit its highest since late 2014 on Monday at $82.18.